金马国际YG电子计划群大全
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ougoah
10 carriers in total by 2035 is a monumental task and a monumental cost.
到2035年，总共要建10艘航母是一项艰巨的任务，也是一笔极大的费用。
10 carriers in total by 2035 is a monumental task and a monumental cost.
到2035年，总共要建10艘航母是一项艰巨的任务，也是一笔极大的费用。
takwb
The dollar's dominance in world trade is by and large supported by American military supremacy. This brings benefits to the US economy on the scale of trillions (I am making the simple assumption that if USD is not dominating the world trade, the US economy should revert to a level of GDP per capita that is comparable to the Europeans and Japanese, considering that these other countries actually have higher living standard than the US, as measured by longevity, quality of education (PISA test scores), etc. This means a potential shrinkage of 35%+. Multiply that by the US GDP of $20.5 trillion in 2019, that's $7 trillion a year.). Hence, US is happy to continue spending billions upon billions to maintain and upgrade said military because the return is vast (10x if measured by the latest military budget of around $700B).
From the Chinese standpoint, if they can successfully counter American military prowess around the globe, then it will mean the internationalization of RMB can go more smoothly. The benefit here is also measured on the scale of trillions. Hence, this would seem like a pretty sweet deal to them.
美元在世界贸易中的主导地位基本上是由美国的军事霸权所支撑的。这给美国经济带来了数万亿美元的好处。我做了一个简单的假设，如果美元没有主导世界贸易，美国经济应该恢复到与欧洲和日本相当的人均GDP水平，考虑到在寿命、教育质量(PISA测试分数)等方面，这些国家实际上拥有比美国更高的生活水平。这意味着潜在的收缩幅度在35%以上。将之乘以2019年美国20.5万亿美元的GDP，就是每年7万亿美元。因此，美国乐于继续花费数十亿美元来维持和升级其所谓的军队，因为回报是巨大的(如果以最新的约7000亿美元的军事预算来计算，就是10倍的回报)。
从中国的角度来看，如果他们能够成功地在全球范围内对抗美国的军事实力，那么这将意味着人民币国际化进程将更加顺利。这里的好处也是以万亿的规模来计算的。因此，对他们来说，这似乎是一笔相当不错的交易。
The dollar's dominance in world trade is by and large supported by American military supremacy. This brings benefits to the US economy on the scale of trillions (I am making the simple assumption that if USD is not dominating the world trade, the US economy should revert to a level of GDP per capita that is comparable to the Europeans and Japanese, considering that these other countries actually have higher living standard than the US, as measured by longevity, quality of education (PISA test scores), etc. This means a potential shrinkage of 35%+. Multiply that by the US GDP of $20.5 trillion in 2019, that's $7 trillion a year.). Hence, US is happy to continue spending billions upon billions to maintain and upgrade said military because the return is vast (10x if measured by the latest military budget of around $700B).
From the Chinese standpoint, if they can successfully counter American military prowess around the globe, then it will mean the internationalization of RMB can go more smoothly. The benefit here is also measured on the scale of trillions. Hence, this would seem like a pretty sweet deal to them.
美元在世界贸易中的主导地位基本上是由美国的军事霸权所支撑的。这给美国经济带来了数万亿美元的好处。我做了一个简单的假设，如果美元没有主导世界贸易，美国经济应该恢复到与欧洲和日本相当的人均GDP水平，考虑到在寿命、教育质量(PISA测试分数)等方面，这些国家实际上拥有比美国更高的生活水平。这意味着潜在的收缩幅度在35%以上。将之乘以2019年美国20.5万亿美元的GDP，就是每年7万亿美元。因此，美国乐于继续花费数十亿美元来维持和升级其所谓的军队，因为回报是巨大的(如果以最新的约7000亿美元的军事预算来计算，就是10倍的回报)。
从中国的角度来看，如果他们能够成功地在全球范围内对抗美国的军事实力，那么这将意味着人民币国际化进程将更加顺利。这里的好处也是以万亿的规模来计算的。因此，对他们来说，这似乎是一笔相当不错的交易。
ougoah
I have immense respect for China's shipbuilding industry and its leaders who managed to make it a reality. Underestimating the Americans is just dumb though. Calling their shipbuilding industry crippled is trivialising and underestimating it. Particularly when it is China that needs to build up for at least 15 years at this incredible pace just to get to where the US is at today. I wonder how much of the leak about 10 carriers by 2035 is meant to send a certain message.
我对中国的造船业，及其成功实现这一目标的领导者怀有极大的敬意。但是低估美国人是愚蠢的。称他们的造船业“跛脚”就是轻视和低估它。特别是当中国需要以这种令人难以置信的速度建设至少15年，才能达到美国今天的水平时。我想知道，泄露的到2035年建造10艘航母的信息中，有多少是确定的信息。
I have immense respect for China's shipbuilding industry and its leaders who managed to make it a reality. Underestimating the Americans is just dumb though. Calling their shipbuilding industry crippled is trivialising and underestimating it. Particularly when it is China that needs to build up for at least 15 years at this incredible pace just to get to where the US is at today. I wonder how much of the leak about 10 carriers by 2035 is meant to send a certain message.
我对中国的造船业，及其成功实现这一目标的领导者怀有极大的敬意。但是低估美国人是愚蠢的。称他们的造船业“跛脚”就是轻视和低估它。特别是当中国需要以这种令人难以置信的速度建设至少15年，才能达到美国今天的水平时。我想知道，泄露的到2035年建造10艘航母的信息中，有多少是确定的信息。
ougoah
While this might be fair, you forget what this spoilt useless teenager can still do with that inherited wealth. So let's say that the US not only has a crippled shipbuilding industry, let's assume it doesn't even exist and will not re-emerge ever again. Even if this were the case, that's still 10 super carriers, lots of F-35s, 67 destroyers, 22 cruisers, and a lot of superior nuclear powered attack subs and everything in between holding it all together and strengthening their capabilities. PLAN has some way to go and bragging about having 10 carriers, 15 years before the job is done is Indian caliber arrogance.
虽然这是持平之论，但你忘了这个被宠坏的废柴少年还能用继承的财富做点什么。所以我们假设美国不仅造船业瘫痪，我们还假设它根本不存在，也不会东山再起。即使这些假设都是对的，但他仍然拥有10艘超级航母，大量的F35, 67艘驱逐舰，22艘巡洋舰，大量先进的核动力攻击潜艇，以及将这些先进军备整合起来并强化其能力的一切事物。中国海军还有很长的路要走，吹嘘自己15年后才能建成的十艘航母，这是印度式的自大口嗨。
While this might be fair, you forget what this spoilt useless teenager can still do with that inherited wealth. So let's say that the US not only has a crippled shipbuilding industry, let's assume it doesn't even exist and will not re-emerge ever again. Even if this were the case, that's still 10 super carriers, lots of F-35s, 67 destroyers, 22 cruisers, and a lot of superior nuclear powered attack subs and everything in between holding it all together and strengthening their capabilities. PLAN has some way to go and bragging about having 10 carriers, 15 years before the job is done is Indian caliber arrogance.
虽然这是持平之论，但你忘了这个被宠坏的废柴少年还能用继承的财富做点什么。所以我们假设美国不仅造船业瘫痪，我们还假设它根本不存在，也不会东山再起。即使这些假设都是对的，但他仍然拥有10艘超级航母，大量的F35, 67艘驱逐舰，22艘巡洋舰，大量先进的核动力攻击潜艇，以及将这些先进军备整合起来并强化其能力的一切事物。中国海军还有很长的路要走，吹嘘自己15年后才能建成的十艘航母，这是印度式的自大口嗨。
ZeEa5KPul
That's like saying someone with terminal cancer is relatively less healthy than before - true, but misleading. The US has no shipbuilding industry whatsoever; those shipyards that churn out failures like the Zumwalt exist purely as a mechanism for private defence companies to price gouge the American government. It's daylight robbery, nothing more.
“Just remember what happened to the Germans on the Eastern Front.”
Instead of me remembering a wholly irrelevant historical factoid, how about you try to come up with a historical analogy that doesn't involve Nazi Germany. I'm sure you've studied history beyond the WWII era, or have you not?
这就像说一个晚期癌症患者比以前更不健康——这是实话，但有误导性。无论怎么说，美国没有造船业了；那些大量炮制出类似朱姆沃尔特这类扑街产品的造船厂，纯粹是作为私营军工企业对美国政府进行价格欺诈的机制而存在的。这就一种是光天化日之下的抢劫，仅此而已。
“只要记住德国人在东线的遭遇就行了。”
与其我想起一个完全无关的历史因素，不如你试着想出一个不牵涉纳粹德国的历史类比。我相信你学过二战之后的历史，难道你没学过吗？
That's like saying someone with terminal cancer is relatively less healthy than before - true, but misleading. The US has no shipbuilding industry whatsoever; those shipyards that churn out failures like the Zumwalt exist purely as a mechanism for private defence companies to price gouge the American government. It's daylight robbery, nothing more.
“Just remember what happened to the Germans on the Eastern Front.”
Instead of me remembering a wholly irrelevant historical factoid, how about you try to come up with a historical analogy that doesn't involve Nazi Germany. I'm sure you've studied history beyond the WWII era, or have you not?
这就像说一个晚期癌症患者比以前更不健康——这是实话，但有误导性。无论怎么说，美国没有造船业了；那些大量炮制出类似朱姆沃尔特这类扑街产品的造船厂，纯粹是作为私营军工企业对美国政府进行价格欺诈的机制而存在的。这就一种是光天化日之下的抢劫，仅此而已。
“只要记住德国人在东线的遭遇就行了。”
与其我想起一个完全无关的历史因素，不如你试着想出一个不牵涉纳粹德国的历史类比。我相信你学过二战之后的历史，难道你没学过吗？
Bhurki
ZeEa5KPul said:
“There may have been a time when American industry was something of stature, but those days are long past. It is impossible to underestimate America today.”
The trough that you're witnessing in the military production capabilities in US, be it shipbuilding, aviation or ground force elements is born out of absence of a near peer adversary for almost 3 decades.
That may lead one into thinking that the US capability to out produce and outfight an adversary has reduced but it puts a veil on the underlying technical expertise and economic wiggle-room it has to ramp up its combat forces in time of crisis.
ZeEa5KPul说：
“美国工业也许曾有过特别风骚的时期，但辉煌早已远去。所以低估今日之漂亮国是不存在的。”
你所看到的美国军事生产能力的低谷，无论是造船、航空还是陆军装备，都是由于近30年来没有一个几乎可以匹敌的对手而造成的。
这可能会让人认为，美国的生产能力和击败对手的能力已经减弱，但它掩盖了潜在的技术专长和经济波动这一事实，在危机时刻，它就必须加强战斗力了。
ZeEa5KPul said:
“There may have been a time when American industry was something of stature, but those days are long past. It is impossible to underestimate America today.”
The trough that you're witnessing in the military production capabilities in US, be it shipbuilding, aviation or ground force elements is born out of absence of a near peer adversary for almost 3 decades.
That may lead one into thinking that the US capability to out produce and outfight an adversary has reduced but it puts a veil on the underlying technical expertise and economic wiggle-room it has to ramp up its combat forces in time of crisis.
ZeEa5KPul说：
“美国工业也许曾有过特别风骚的时期，但辉煌早已远去。所以低估今日之漂亮国是不存在的。”
你所看到的美国军事生产能力的低谷，无论是造船、航空还是陆军装备，都是由于近30年来没有一个几乎可以匹敌的对手而造成的。
这可能会让人认为，美国的生产能力和击败对手的能力已经减弱，但它掩盖了潜在的技术专长和经济波动这一事实，在危机时刻，它就必须加强战斗力了。
Time and again we have seen it change and augment its forces to meet combat demands in a rather rapid fashion, like WW2, cold war etc.
The force structure, and inherent support, production you see now is based on world policing/threat deterrence needs and not direct combat with peer adversary. This docile behaviour should not be mistaken as an inability and rather a conscious decision taken by the lawmakers.
Once a direct threat or casus belli is instilled into the US power structure, the initial stages of which is pretty much showing itself now, thats when the real picture will emerge.
我们已经屡次看到，它以相当迅速的方式改变和扩充其力量以满足战斗需求，比如二战、冷战等。
你现在看到的部队结构、内在支持和生产都是基于世界警察事务/威胁威慑的需要，而不是基于直接与同等对手作战。这种温良的表现不应被误认为是国会议员的无能，而是一种有意识的决定。
一旦直接威胁或开战理由被灌输到美国的权力结构中，那时它的真正实力和真实面目将会完全呈现出来，其最初阶段的表现其实现在已经很明显了。
The force structure, and inherent support, production you see now is based on world policing/threat deterrence needs and not direct combat with peer adversary. This docile behaviour should not be mistaken as an inability and rather a conscious decision taken by the lawmakers.
Once a direct threat or casus belli is instilled into the US power structure, the initial stages of which is pretty much showing itself now, thats when the real picture will emerge.
我们已经屡次看到，它以相当迅速的方式改变和扩充其力量以满足战斗需求，比如二战、冷战等。
你现在看到的部队结构、内在支持和生产都是基于世界警察事务/威胁威慑的需要，而不是基于直接与同等对手作战。这种温良的表现不应被误认为是国会议员的无能，而是一种有意识的决定。
一旦直接威胁或开战理由被灌输到美国的权力结构中，那时它的真正实力和真实面目将会完全呈现出来，其最初阶段的表现其实现在已经很明显了。
ZeEa5KPul
Time and again we've seen societies that were gods astride the Earth fail and crumble. Italy could once muster armies that conquered Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East - look at it today. America is in no position to do what it did then; it's fiscally, economically, and socially exhausted. It's already spending $750 billion and getting peanuts for it.
China is just beginning its ascent. As superpowers go, it's in the adolescent phase similar to the US during the middle of the 19th century and it still has enormous room left to grow.
The real picture has already emerged and it's one of a failing state well on its way to becoming a failed state.
我们一再目睹了那些横跨地球的上帝般的社会的失败和崩溃。意大利军团曾席卷欧洲、北非和中东，再瞧瞧它如今那熊样！如今的美国也不能像它曾经那样为所欲为了；它在财政、经济和社会上都精疲力竭了。它在军事预算上豪掷7500亿美元，但收效甚微。
中国的崛起才刚刚开始。作为超级大国，中国正处于青春期，类似于19世纪中期的美国，中国仍有巨大的发展空间。
漂亮国的真面目已经暴露无遗，这是个正在走向失败的国家。
Time and again we've seen societies that were gods astride the Earth fail and crumble. Italy could once muster armies that conquered Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East - look at it today. America is in no position to do what it did then; it's fiscally, economically, and socially exhausted. It's already spending $750 billion and getting peanuts for it.
China is just beginning its ascent. As superpowers go, it's in the adolescent phase similar to the US during the middle of the 19th century and it still has enormous room left to grow.
The real picture has already emerged and it's one of a failing state well on its way to becoming a failed state.
我们一再目睹了那些横跨地球的上帝般的社会的失败和崩溃。意大利军团曾席卷欧洲、北非和中东，再瞧瞧它如今那熊样！如今的美国也不能像它曾经那样为所欲为了；它在财政、经济和社会上都精疲力竭了。它在军事预算上豪掷7500亿美元，但收效甚微。
中国的崛起才刚刚开始。作为超级大国，中国正处于青春期，类似于19世纪中期的美国，中国仍有巨大的发展空间。
漂亮国的真面目已经暴露无遗，这是个正在走向失败的国家。
Bltizo
I'm trying to read the phrasing of his original relevant Chinese part...
" 昨天很多媒体都在传说，什么2035年中国将拥有6艘航母的消息，也不知道他们怎么知道的，是看了海军中长期发展规划纲要了？还是拍脑袋想出来的？媒体一惊一年现在是常态，动不动就来个鸡血文并配上惊悚的标题，但这次吧，该鸡血的时候，又战战就益的不敢鸡血了。海军现在是特码的按10艘航母去规划的，而不是6艘。"
I'm trying to read the phrasing of his original relevant Chinese part...
" 昨天很多媒体都在传说，什么2035年中国将拥有6艘航母的消息，也不知道他们怎么知道的，是看了海军中长期发展规划纲要了？还是拍脑袋想出来的？媒体一惊一年现在是常态，动不动就来个鸡血文并配上惊悚的标题，但这次吧，该鸡血的时候，又战战就益的不敢鸡血了。海军现在是特码的按10艘航母去规划的，而不是6艘。"
Is he saying that he can see 10 carriers by 2035, or is he instead saying that 10 carriers is in the plan?
Because regarding the 2035 thing, he is first observing that foreign media have said China will seek to have 6 carriers by 2035.
我在试着读其最初相关中文部分的措辞……
“昨天很多媒体都在传说，什么2035年中国将拥有6艘航母的消息，也不知道他们怎么知道的，是看了海军中长期发展规划纲要了？还是拍脑袋想出来的？媒体一惊一乍现在是常态，动不动就来个鸡血文并配上惊悚的标题，但这次吧，该鸡血的时候，又战战兢兢地不敢鸡血了。海军现在是特么的按10艘航母去规划的，而不是6艘。”
他是说到2035年他能看到10艘航母，还是说计划中有10艘航母?
因为关于2035年的相关消息，他首先注意到外国媒体说中国将争取到2035年拥有6艘航母。
Because regarding the 2035 thing, he is first observing that foreign media have said China will seek to have 6 carriers by 2035.
我在试着读其最初相关中文部分的措辞……
“昨天很多媒体都在传说，什么2035年中国将拥有6艘航母的消息，也不知道他们怎么知道的，是看了海军中长期发展规划纲要了？还是拍脑袋想出来的？媒体一惊一乍现在是常态，动不动就来个鸡血文并配上惊悚的标题，但这次吧，该鸡血的时候，又战战兢兢地不敢鸡血了。海军现在是特么的按10艘航母去规划的，而不是6艘。”
他是说到2035年他能看到10艘航母，还是说计划中有10艘航母?
因为关于2035年的相关消息，他首先注意到外国媒体说中国将争取到2035年拥有6艘航母。
He then proceeds to criticize the "6 carrier by 2035" thing as misguided on behalf of media.
Following that the navy is planning for 10 carriers (rather than 6), however he doesn't directly say that we should expect 10 carriers by 2035 I believe.
However, if we take that entire section as one overall argument, he seems to be implying that the timeline for 10 carriers is the same timescale mentioned by media in terms of 6 carriers (i.e.: 2035).
Or am I misreading him?
接着，他批评“到2035年拥有6艘航母”的说法是媒体的误导。
接着他说海军计划建造10艘航母(而不是6艘)，不过我认为，他并没有直接说到2035年将有10艘航母。
不过，如果我们把整个部分作为一个整体的论点，他似乎是在暗示10艘航母的时间表和媒体提到的6艘航母的时间表是一样的（即2035年）。
还是我误解他了?
Following that the navy is planning for 10 carriers (rather than 6), however he doesn't directly say that we should expect 10 carriers by 2035 I believe.
However, if we take that entire section as one overall argument, he seems to be implying that the timeline for 10 carriers is the same timescale mentioned by media in terms of 6 carriers (i.e.: 2035).
Or am I misreading him?
接着，他批评“到2035年拥有6艘航母”的说法是媒体的误导。
接着他说海军计划建造10艘航母(而不是6艘)，不过我认为，他并没有直接说到2035年将有10艘航母。
不过，如果我们把整个部分作为一个整体的论点，他似乎是在暗示10艘航母的时间表和媒体提到的6艘航母的时间表是一样的（即2035年）。
还是我误解他了?
Higgle
He doesn't specifically say "10 carriers by 2035". The passage is more of an observation.
Rougly translated, what he's saying is that he doesn't know where the media pulled their number from. Why has the media been parroting '6 CVs by 2035', or '6 CVs by 20XX'?
He notes that the media these days is notorious for writing clickbaity and often inaccurate content for the sake of getting more attention, referring to the myth that China might have 6 CVs by 2035. But why not more than 6? On the topic of China's CV program, the media is ironically setting the bar too low.
6 is just an arbitrary number made up by pundits and analysts. The "6 CV by 20XX" notion is pointless, he says, because China is in reality planning for a 10+ strong carrier fleet.
So we should stop asking ourselves stuff like "can China get 6 CVs by 2030?" and instead start thinking along the lines of "China wants 10 carriers, when's the soonest that can be achieved?" That is the key point.
他没有明确说“到2035年有10艘航母”。这段文字更多是一种观察。
严格地翻译的话，他的意思是，他不知道媒体的数字是从哪里来的。为何某些媒体一直在叨逼叨什么“到2035年拥有6艘航母”，或者“到20XX年拥有6艘航母”？
他指出，如今的媒体为赚取点击率和获得更多关注发布不实信息而臭名昭著，这里面就提及了关于中国到2035年可能会拥有6艘航母的传言。但为何不是超过6艘呢？讽刺的是，在中国的航母项目上，媒体把门槛定得太低了。
所谓“6艘”只是砖家和分析人士随意编造的数字。他认为，“到20XX年拥有6艘航母”的想法毫无意义，因为中国实际上正在规划拥有10艘以上的强大航母舰队。
所以我们不应该再问自己“中国到2030年能拿到6艘航母吗?”而是应该开始思考“中国想要10艘航母，最快什么时候能建造完成?”这才是关键。
He doesn't specifically say "10 carriers by 2035". The passage is more of an observation.
Rougly translated, what he's saying is that he doesn't know where the media pulled their number from. Why has the media been parroting '6 CVs by 2035', or '6 CVs by 20XX'?
He notes that the media these days is notorious for writing clickbaity and often inaccurate content for the sake of getting more attention, referring to the myth that China might have 6 CVs by 2035. But why not more than 6? On the topic of China's CV program, the media is ironically setting the bar too low.
6 is just an arbitrary number made up by pundits and analysts. The "6 CV by 20XX" notion is pointless, he says, because China is in reality planning for a 10+ strong carrier fleet.
So we should stop asking ourselves stuff like "can China get 6 CVs by 2030?" and instead start thinking along the lines of "China wants 10 carriers, when's the soonest that can be achieved?" That is the key point.
他没有明确说“到2035年有10艘航母”。这段文字更多是一种观察。
严格地翻译的话，他的意思是，他不知道媒体的数字是从哪里来的。为何某些媒体一直在叨逼叨什么“到2035年拥有6艘航母”，或者“到20XX年拥有6艘航母”？
他指出，如今的媒体为赚取点击率和获得更多关注发布不实信息而臭名昭著，这里面就提及了关于中国到2035年可能会拥有6艘航母的传言。但为何不是超过6艘呢？讽刺的是，在中国的航母项目上，媒体把门槛定得太低了。
所谓“6艘”只是砖家和分析人士随意编造的数字。他认为，“到20XX年拥有6艘航母”的想法毫无意义，因为中国实际上正在规划拥有10艘以上的强大航母舰队。
所以我们不应该再问自己“中国到2030年能拿到6艘航母吗?”而是应该开始思考“中国想要10艘航母，最快什么时候能建造完成?”这才是关键。
Jono
He is writing in a definitive tone, not speculating.
" the Navy is specifically planning for 10 carriers, not 6 ".
他是用明确的语气写的，而不是推测。
“海军正明确规划建造10艘航母，而不是6艘”
He is writing in a definitive tone, not speculating.
" the Navy is specifically planning for 10 carriers, not 6 ".
他是用明确的语气写的，而不是推测。
“海军正明确规划建造10艘航母，而不是6艘”
tazket
to be precise,
The navy is FUCKING planning for 10 carriers, not 6.
确切地讲，原话是这么说的：
海军现在是“特么的”按10艘航母去规划的，而不是6艘。
to be precise,
The navy is FUCKING planning for 10 carriers, not 6.
确切地讲，原话是这么说的：
海军现在是“特么的”按10艘航母去规划的，而不是6艘。
Peter2018
So this is no longer a fanboy fantasy? So 10 CV by 2035, that would be cranking out another 7 in 15 yrs, another every 2 yrs?
所以这不再只是狂热粉丝们的幻想了?所以就是到2035年建造10艘航母，这意味着要在15年里建造7艘，每2年建造一艘?
So this is no longer a fanboy fantasy? So 10 CV by 2035, that would be cranking out another 7 in 15 yrs, another every 2 yrs?
所以这不再只是狂热粉丝们的幻想了?所以就是到2035年建造10艘航母，这意味着要在15年里建造7艘，每2年建造一艘?
by78
10 carriers by 2035 remains a fanboy fantasy.
His wording is very imprecise. The year 2035 is only directly stated by media reports, which he indirectly paraphrased. If he understood the reports of 6 carriers by 2035 to mean no more carriers after 2035, meaning China will stop at 6 carriers, then his 10-carrier count would indicate a more general plan with no definitively stated timeline.
I would approach 2035 with caution, even if not all 10 are to be combat ready by that time. Seven more carriers in 15 years is not impossible, but they have to be manned and provisioned with fighters, UCAVs, helicopters, along with all the necessary logistical and training support on the backend. Building them at such a rapid clip is the easy part, and also no plan is set in stone.
到2035年拥有10艘航母仍然是狂热粉丝们的幻想。
他的措辞非常不精确。2035年只是媒体报道中直接提到的，而他是间接转述的。如果他理解到2035年拥有6艘航母的报道意味着2035年之后将不再继续建造航母，这意味着中国航母数量将止于6艘，那么他所谓的10艘航母的数量，表明这更多只是一个总体规划，没有明确的时间表。
我对2035年这个时间持谨慎认可态度，即使到那时不是所有10艘航母都能做好战斗准备。15年内再增加7艘航母不是不可能的，但是他们必须配备载人战斗机，无人战斗机，直升机，以及后端所有必要的后勤和培训支持。以如此快的速度建造这些航母相对来说是比较容易的，况且计划赶不上变化。
10 carriers by 2035 remains a fanboy fantasy.
His wording is very imprecise. The year 2035 is only directly stated by media reports, which he indirectly paraphrased. If he understood the reports of 6 carriers by 2035 to mean no more carriers after 2035, meaning China will stop at 6 carriers, then his 10-carrier count would indicate a more general plan with no definitively stated timeline.
I would approach 2035 with caution, even if not all 10 are to be combat ready by that time. Seven more carriers in 15 years is not impossible, but they have to be manned and provisioned with fighters, UCAVs, helicopters, along with all the necessary logistical and training support on the backend. Building them at such a rapid clip is the easy part, and also no plan is set in stone.
到2035年拥有10艘航母仍然是狂热粉丝们的幻想。
他的措辞非常不精确。2035年只是媒体报道中直接提到的，而他是间接转述的。如果他理解到2035年拥有6艘航母的报道意味着2035年之后将不再继续建造航母，这意味着中国航母数量将止于6艘，那么他所谓的10艘航母的数量，表明这更多只是一个总体规划，没有明确的时间表。
我对2035年这个时间持谨慎认可态度，即使到那时不是所有10艘航母都能做好战斗准备。15年内再增加7艘航母不是不可能的，但是他们必须配备载人战斗机，无人战斗机，直升机，以及后端所有必要的后勤和培训支持。以如此快的速度建造这些航母相对来说是比较容易的，况且计划赶不上变化。
Bltizo
I think his post does have some potentially very useful granules of information but it has to be interpreted carefully.
He directly references the media reports of "six carriers by 2035" (probably one of the recent articles from SCMP lol), and he speaks derisively of that specific prediction.
The fact that he mentions the 2035 date specifically, which conveys that he thinks that number (6 carrierse) by 2035 is a low-ball.
OTOH, when he mentions 10+carriers, he doesn't give a specific date but rather talks about it like that is the number the PLAN is aiming for.
Based on that post and the way in which he phrases the salient points, I would argue that we can operate somewhat confidently with the idea that pop3 himself at least believes that 2035 may see the PLAN have more than only 6 carriers.
However, what actual specific number they have come 2035 is another matter, and whether it is 10 or 9 or 8 or 7 is anyone's guess.
我认为他的帖子确实有一些潜在的非常有用的信息，但必须谨慎解读。
他直接引用了媒体关于“到2035年有6艘航母”的报道(可能是《南华早报》最近的一篇文章)，他以嘲讽的口吻谈到了这一明确的预测。
事实上，他特别提到2035年这个日期，这意味着他认为到2035年这个数字(6艘航母)是保守的。
另一方面，当他提到10艘以上航母时，他并没有给出具体的日期，只是说这是中国海军的目标数量。
基于那条贴文以及他表达要点的方式，我想说的是，我们可以满怀信心地认为，至少pop3自己相信，到2035年，中国海军将拥有超过6艘航母。
I think his post does have some potentially very useful granules of information but it has to be interpreted carefully.
He directly references the media reports of "six carriers by 2035" (probably one of the recent articles from SCMP lol), and he speaks derisively of that specific prediction.
The fact that he mentions the 2035 date specifically, which conveys that he thinks that number (6 carrierse) by 2035 is a low-ball.
OTOH, when he mentions 10+carriers, he doesn't give a specific date but rather talks about it like that is the number the PLAN is aiming for.
Based on that post and the way in which he phrases the salient points, I would argue that we can operate somewhat confidently with the idea that pop3 himself at least believes that 2035 may see the PLAN have more than only 6 carriers.
However, what actual specific number they have come 2035 is another matter, and whether it is 10 or 9 or 8 or 7 is anyone's guess.
我认为他的帖子确实有一些潜在的非常有用的信息，但必须谨慎解读。
他直接引用了媒体关于“到2035年有6艘航母”的报道(可能是《南华早报》最近的一篇文章)，他以嘲讽的口吻谈到了这一明确的预测。
事实上，他特别提到2035年这个日期，这意味着他认为到2035年这个数字(6艘航母)是保守的。
另一方面，当他提到10艘以上航母时，他并没有给出具体的日期，只是说这是中国海军的目标数量。
基于那条贴文以及他表达要点的方式，我想说的是，我们可以满怀信心地认为，至少pop3自己相信，到2035年，中国海军将拥有超过6艘航母。
Obviously the high end of that interpretation (10 carriers by 2035) is rather eyebrow raising -- but as you said, it's not impossible. And it goes without saying that 10 carriers by 2035 means there would inevitably have to be a certain pace of procurement of other relevant assets and subsystems at a similar pace as well. And given we know that the PLA is hardly going to be putting all of their eggs into the Navy's carrier force, if they do pursue 10 carriers by 2035 then that has even more consequences for just what kind of scale or procurement the PLA overall would be doing as a whole.
So cautiously I wouldn't call 10 carriers by 2035 a fanboy fantasy, but it's definitely a "goal" that needs to be treated carefully with the due respect for understanding of the systemic implications for PLA procurement it implies.
显然，1号庄娱乐平台注册登入：这一解释的最高数量(到2035年将有10艘航母)相当令人目瞪口呆了……但正如你所说，这不是不可能的。毫无疑问，到2035年拥有10艘航母意味着，不可避免地要以与之相匹配的速度采购其他配套装备和子系统。鉴于我们知道解放军不会把所有的鸡蛋都放到海军的航母力量上，如果他们确实谋求到2035年拥有10艘航母，那么，这就会对解放军的整个采购规模产生更大的影响。
所以我不会说到2035年拥有10艘航母是狂热粉丝们的幻想，但这绝对是一个需要谨慎对待的“目标”，同时也要慎重考虑它对解放军采购的系统性影响。
So cautiously I wouldn't call 10 carriers by 2035 a fanboy fantasy, but it's definitely a "goal" that needs to be treated carefully with the due respect for understanding of the systemic implications for PLA procurement it implies.
显然，1号庄娱乐平台注册登入：这一解释的最高数量(到2035年将有10艘航母)相当令人目瞪口呆了……但正如你所说，这不是不可能的。毫无疑问，到2035年拥有10艘航母意味着，不可避免地要以与之相匹配的速度采购其他配套装备和子系统。鉴于我们知道解放军不会把所有的鸡蛋都放到海军的航母力量上，如果他们确实谋求到2035年拥有10艘航母，那么，这就会对解放军的整个采购规模产生更大的影响。
所以我不会说到2035年拥有10艘航母是狂热粉丝们的幻想，但这绝对是一个需要谨慎对待的“目标”，同时也要慎重考虑它对解放军采购的系统性影响。
DigoSSA
When he talks about 10 aircraft carriers, I believe he may be counting on the speculated class 076. In the mold of the Japanese Izumo class.
当他谈到10艘航空母舰时，我相信他可能是连076级都计算在内了。
When he talks about 10 aircraft carriers, I believe he may be counting on the speculated class 076. In the mold of the Japanese Izumo class.
当他谈到10艘航空母舰时，我相信他可能是连076级都计算在内了。
Bltizo
Almost definitely not lol.
076 is being described as an amphibious assault ship, not a carrier.
可以肯定地说不是，哈哈哈。
076是一种两栖攻击舰，而不是航母。
Almost definitely not lol.
076 is being described as an amphibious assault ship, not a carrier.
可以肯定地说不是，哈哈哈。
076是一种两栖攻击舰，而不是航母。
lcloo
Any Chinese Navy ships with numerical designation of Type 07X are amphibious warfare ships. Type 071, 072, 073, 074 and 075 are all in this classification. Type 076 will not be an exception.
任何编号为07X型的中国海军舰艇都是两栖作战舰艇。071型、072型、073型、074型和075型都在这种分类中。076型也不例外。
Any Chinese Navy ships with numerical designation of Type 07X are amphibious warfare ships. Type 071, 072, 073, 074 and 075 are all in this classification. Type 076 will not be an exception.
任何编号为07X型的中国海军舰艇都是两栖作战舰艇。071型、072型、073型、074型和075型都在这种分类中。076型也不例外。
Red Moon
@Bltizo
More 054A's, starting production of 054B, more 052's and 055's, a new type 076, and construction of carrier #4 is about to start. All of this is believable and more or less takes care of the next 3-5 years. Perhaps in two years or even in one, we will be discussing the start of carrier #5, and whatever additional plans.
However, I find it hard to believe that the Chinese leadership has a specific "plan" for the number of carriers, or other ships, for that matter, for 2035. China is no longer #3, 4 or 5 in the world, but rather, a very solid #2. The global order has been at a sort of a tipping point for a couple of years now, and Covid-19 has only accelerated things. Therefore, while the country needs to build up it's forces to prepare for the worst, it also needs to avoid overkill: the navy is an expensive affair, and overall, economic and technological growth is still the priority for China.
@Bltizo
开始生产054B型驱逐舰，并建造更多的054A型驱逐舰，更多的052和055型驱逐舰，新型076级两栖驱逐舰，而且4号航母的建造也即将开始。
这一切都是可信的，或多或少会照顾到接下来的3-5年。也许两年甚至一年之后，我们将讨论五号航母的启动建造，以及其他额外的建造计划。
然而，我很难相信中国对2035年的航母或其他舰艇的数量有一个明确的“计划”。中国不再是世界第三、第四或第五列强，而是一个非常稳固的老二。几年来，全球秩序一直处于一个转折点，而新冠疫情只是加速了这一大变局的发展。因此，当国家需要加强力量准备最坏的情况时，它还需要避免过犹不及：建设海军是一个昂贵的项目，总体来说，经济和技术增长仍然是中国的首要任务。
@Bltizo
More 054A's, starting production of 054B, more 052's and 055's, a new type 076, and construction of carrier #4 is about to start. All of this is believable and more or less takes care of the next 3-5 years. Perhaps in two years or even in one, we will be discussing the start of carrier #5, and whatever additional plans.
However, I find it hard to believe that the Chinese leadership has a specific "plan" for the number of carriers, or other ships, for that matter, for 2035. China is no longer #3, 4 or 5 in the world, but rather, a very solid #2. The global order has been at a sort of a tipping point for a couple of years now, and Covid-19 has only accelerated things. Therefore, while the country needs to build up it's forces to prepare for the worst, it also needs to avoid overkill: the navy is an expensive affair, and overall, economic and technological growth is still the priority for China.
@Bltizo
开始生产054B型驱逐舰，并建造更多的054A型驱逐舰，更多的052和055型驱逐舰，新型076级两栖驱逐舰，而且4号航母的建造也即将开始。
这一切都是可信的，或多或少会照顾到接下来的3-5年。也许两年甚至一年之后，我们将讨论五号航母的启动建造，以及其他额外的建造计划。
然而，我很难相信中国对2035年的航母或其他舰艇的数量有一个明确的“计划”。中国不再是世界第三、第四或第五列强，而是一个非常稳固的老二。几年来，全球秩序一直处于一个转折点，而新冠疫情只是加速了这一大变局的发展。因此，当国家需要加强力量准备最坏的情况时，它还需要避免过犹不及：建设海军是一个昂贵的项目，总体来说，经济和技术增长仍然是中国的首要任务。
Today, even more than before, China will be reacting to actual conditions, and like never before, this depends very heavily on the circumstances of it's main adversary. At every turn, China will be uating not only the military and strategic stance of the US, but its economic, social and political stability, as well as it's system of alliances. My point is not to get into such a discussion, but I've never seen such instability and unpredictability in the world (or the US itself), nor can I think of a similar period in history.
So if our "big shrimp" is deriding the figure of 6 carriers, and saying "why not 10+?", I absolutely agree with him. How the hell do you know what China will need in 2035? I don't even know who it's adversaries will be, much less how much power they will possess.
今天，中国将比以往更加要根据实际情况做出反应，这在很大程度上取决于其主要对手的情况，这是前所未有的。在每一个转折点上，中国都将不仅要评估美国的军事和战略立场，还将评估美国的经济、社会和政治稳定，以及美国的联盟体系。我不想讨论这样的问题，但我从未见过世界(或美国本身)如此不稳定和不可预测，我也想不出历史上有过类似的时期。
所以如果我们的“大虾”嘲笑6艘航母这个数据，并说“为什么不是10艘以上”，我完全同意他的看法。你怎么知道2035年中国需要什么?我甚至不知道它的对手将是谁，更不知道他们将拥有多大力量。
So if our "big shrimp" is deriding the figure of 6 carriers, and saying "why not 10+?", I absolutely agree with him. How the hell do you know what China will need in 2035? I don't even know who it's adversaries will be, much less how much power they will possess.
今天，中国将比以往更加要根据实际情况做出反应，这在很大程度上取决于其主要对手的情况，这是前所未有的。在每一个转折点上，中国都将不仅要评估美国的军事和战略立场，还将评估美国的经济、社会和政治稳定，以及美国的联盟体系。我不想讨论这样的问题，但我从未见过世界(或美国本身)如此不稳定和不可预测，我也想不出历史上有过类似的时期。
所以如果我们的“大虾”嘲笑6艘航母这个数据，并说“为什么不是10艘以上”，我完全同意他的看法。你怎么知道2035年中国需要什么?我甚至不知道它的对手将是谁，更不知道他们将拥有多大力量。
KYli
What China needs now is deterrence. It is absolutely clear now that peaceful rise is next to impossible. Americans and American politicians don't understand restraint but they do understand hard power. That's why the buildup is no longer evolve only around adversaries and their capability but also a show of power. A few aircraft carriers especially nuclear ones are the best show of power and power projection. Even average Joe understands that. Therefore, as long as China can afford it then overkill is not a problem. I would argue overkill is the only way to deter Chinese adversaries from doing something stupid.
中国现在需要的是威慑。现在可以肯定的是，和平崛起几乎是不可能的。美国人和美国政客不懂得克制，但他们确实懂得硬实力。这就是为什么加强军备不再仅仅是围绕着敌人和他们的能力发展，还是一种实力的展示。几艘航母，尤其是核动力航母，是实力的最佳展示和投射方式。即使是普通人也明白这一点。因此，只要中国能够负担得起，那么“过度建造”就不是问题。我认为，“过度建造”是阻止中国对手做蠢事的唯一途径。
What China needs now is deterrence. It is absolutely clear now that peaceful rise is next to impossible. Americans and American politicians don't understand restraint but they do understand hard power. That's why the buildup is no longer evolve only around adversaries and their capability but also a show of power. A few aircraft carriers especially nuclear ones are the best show of power and power projection. Even average Joe understands that. Therefore, as long as China can afford it then overkill is not a problem. I would argue overkill is the only way to deter Chinese adversaries from doing something stupid.
中国现在需要的是威慑。现在可以肯定的是，和平崛起几乎是不可能的。美国人和美国政客不懂得克制，但他们确实懂得硬实力。这就是为什么加强军备不再仅仅是围绕着敌人和他们的能力发展，还是一种实力的展示。几艘航母，尤其是核动力航母，是实力的最佳展示和投射方式。即使是普通人也明白这一点。因此，只要中国能够负担得起，那么“过度建造”就不是问题。我认为，“过度建造”是阻止中国对手做蠢事的唯一途径。
相关链接
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